In recent years, my country's new energy has developed rapidly. The proportion of wind power and solar power generation in total power generation has increased from 1.2% in 2010 to 11.7% in 2021. The proportion of wind power generation has exceeded the global average. In the context of actively responding to climate change, accelerating the development of new energy sources such as wind power and solar power has become an inevitable choice for my country's energy green and low-carbon transformation, and it is also the first move to achieve the "double carbon" goal. In the future, we must not only pave the way for the development of new energy, but also promote new energy to assume more responsibilities and obligations, and support the construction of a new power system.
The gradual increase in the proportion of new energy is the general trend
The landscape development potential is huge. The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutralization" clearly states that the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80% in 2060. my country's hydropower and nuclear power development is limited, hydropower technology can be developed and installed capacity of about 690 million kilowatts, and it is expected that the conventional hydropower installed capacity will reach about 500 million kilowatts in the future. The development of existing nuclear power technology is limited by site resources and uranium resources, and it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve large-scale commercial application before 2060. In contrast, wind and solar energy reserves are extremely abundant. With technological breakthroughs and industrial scale development, the cost of wind and solar power generation will continue to decrease, and the proportion of wind and solar power generation in the installed capacity structure will continue to increase.
The transition from new energy sources to main power sources should be gradual. Although onshore wind power and photovoltaic power generation have achieved grid parity, it is still difficult to achieve a safe and reliable replacement for traditional power sources. In the future, the new power system will be fundamentally different from the current power system in terms of power supply structure, operation mode, underlying logic, etc. It is impossible to promote new energy to become the main power source overnight. According to the State Council's "Carbon Peaking Action Plan before 2030", the installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts in 2030, and the proportion of wind and solar power generation will reach about 20% by then, and it will still not be the main power source. According to research forecasts, after 2050, wind and solar power is expected to reach more than 50% and become the main body of electricity. In addition, it should also consider whether it can assume the main responsibility for ensuring the safety of power supply. Therefore, it takes a long-term process for new energy to become the main power source, and it should be realistic and gradual.
